December 27, 2024

 

A sufficient supply of pork for Philippine consumers in time for Christmas

In the later part of Q4 2024, the Philippine pork supply was ostensibly stable despite the ongoing impact of African swine fever (ASF) in the country.

 

This was highlighted by Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., who pointed out a "minimal" price increase could happen even with peak demands during Christmas.

 

Signs of stabilisation of supply can be seen in the scaling down of ASF restrictions which opens the door for consumers in Negro Oriental to access a wider variety of Christmas ham and other pork by-products. On December 2, Dr. Alfonso Tundag, quarantine officer for the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) in the province, said that suppliers can deliver Christmas hams and pork by-products to Negros Oriental if mandatory requirements are fulfilled. These include meat from "ASF-infected areas" — a supplier should first obtain a certificate of acceptance from the province's Provincial Veterinary Office.

 

As of December 6, the number of regions in the Philippines with active ASF cases stood at 10, an increase from six in a November 8 update. But at the provincial and barangay levels, the figures were 19 and 365, respectively, compared to 20 provinces and 465 barangays in the November 8 update. At least in the past month, the country's ASF situation has not looked to have worsened, availing some breathing space for the domestic pork supply.

 

As 2025 draws near, the Philippines' pork production was forecast at 1.06 million metric tons (MMT) CWE, a rise of nearly 2% from a 2024 estimate, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Notably, this volume remains below pre-ASF levels. The possibility of a subsiding ASF situation in the second half of 2025 makes achieving the figure likely.

 

For this year, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that the country's pork production could hit 1.04 MMT, compared to 2023's forecast of 950,000 MT.

 

Currently, as the momentum of Philippine pork production has apparently gained pace, the country will continue to depend significantly on imports as the threat of ASF persists.

 

During the January-October 2024 period, the country's meat imports amounted to 1.19 MMT, 16.8% more than 1.01 MMT in the same period of 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture's (DA) Bureau of Animal Industry. Pork shipment, at 598,276 metric tons (MT), or 50.24% of total shipments, drove this increase and was bigger than 504,308 MT last year.

 

With a less severe ASF situation, coupled with higher imports and rising production, Philippine consumers could enjoy enough pork servings on their plates this Christmas. 

- EFL AG-DATA