November 28, 2023

Rains keep hopes alive for Argentine soybean output to hit 50 million tonnes in 2023/24

Rains in Argentina have helped restore soil moisture in preparation for the country's new soybean season of 2023/24, which is progressing steadily toward April of next year.

According to Rosario Stock Exchange, October has become a defining month for Argentine crops. Long-awaited rains allowed the soil moisture profile to be restored in key regions in the country, although more millimeters are still needed in the west of Buenos Aires and north-central Cordoba. This, combined with the largest planted area in six years, with 17.4 million hectares, points to a projected soybean production of 50 million tonnes, two and a half times that of the previous season.

Considering the carry-over between seasons and the forecast imports, the total soybean supply in Argentina is estimated at 58 million tonnes, in line with the average of the last 10 seasons and 54% more than in 2022/23. With this, the oil industry's processing can be expected to grow to 39 million tonnes, an increase of close to 50% with respect to the previous season.

In Argentina, 30% of the dollars coming in from exports come from the agricultural complex. This is why the reactivation of this key industry for Argentine foreign trade is expected.

For the current season, net exports of the soybean complex are estimated at only US$8 billion, the lowest value in almost 20 years, since the 2003/04 season.

Meanwhile, for the 2023/24 season and as a result of the production recomposition, net exports of soybeans and by-products are expected to bring in US$18 billion, US$10 billion more than last season and above the average of the last five years, although still below the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marks, the Rosario Stock Exchange stated.

- Rosario Stock Exchange