November 26, 2024

 

Western Australia ups wheat forecast amid strong early harvest yields

Western Australia is expected to produce 420,000 metric tonnes more wheat than projected a month ago, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA).

 

This revision contributes to growing expectations of a larger national wheat crop than previously estimated ahead of harvest.

 

Analysts had already increased Australia's nationwide production estimates by approximately 1 million tonnes following strong early harvest results in New South Wales, one of the country's major cropping zones. Early harvests in Western Australia are now also reporting high yields across all crops, further boosting optimism for a robust season.

 

Western Australia and New South Wales are Australia's largest cropping regions, with the country ranking as the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter. While benchmark Chicago wheat futures remain near four-year lows due to global supply surpluses, traders anticipate tighter markets in the months ahead.

 

GIWA's latest monthly report forecasts Western Australia will harvest 10.33 million tonnes of wheat, 4.52 million tonnes of barley, and 2.59 million tonnes of canola in 2024. These figures are an increase from last month's predictions of 9.91 million tonnes of wheat, 4.32 million tonnes of barley, and 2.36 million tonnes of canola.

 

"Grain yields have been higher than expected so far for all crops in most areas," GIWA noted. Despite below-average rainfall across much of the region, the association expects Western Australia's total grain and oilseed crop to be the third largest on record.

 

"This will be remarkable considering the start of the season and below-average rainfall for all regions other than the northern agricultural zones," GIWA added. However, the report highlighted that recent widespread rain had slowed harvesting efforts and reduced grain quality in some areas.

 

Nationally, the Australian government has estimated wheat production for the 2024/25 season at 31.8 million tonnes, marking a 20% increase over the 2023/24 total and surpassing the average of the past decade. Despite the strong overall performance, dry conditions in South Australia and Victoria have limited yields, preventing an even larger harvest.

 

-      Hindustan Times