November 14, 2024

 

Positive trend expected for Philippine pork production, consumption — but can Manila vaccinate its hogs quicker?

Following a downtrend in pork consumption in the Philippines since August, this has recently improved as consumers' fear of African swine fever abated, according to the country's Department of Agriculture.

 

Furthermore, as the December holiday season nears, demand for pork is anticipated to pick up. The development may then continue a positive trend into 2025, for which the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) post in Manila foresees pork consumption at 1.58 million metric tons (MMT) carcass-weight equivalent (CWE). The volume represents a 2% increase from 2024.

 

Despite the challenge of inflation, the rise in consumption next year will be driven by economic growth and a growing population expansion in the Philippines.

 

Furthermore, the growing consumption of pork in 2025 is accompanied by a higher pork production of 1.06 MMT CWE, a nearly 2% increase from the estimated 1.04 MMT CWE for 2024, a USDA Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report revealed.

 

USDA-FAS Manila also expects the Philippines' pork imports in 2025 to hit 510,000 MT CWE, over 6% more than 2024's volume. With this figure combined with next year's forecast output, the total supply of pork stands at 1.57 MMT CWE, mostly meeting the country's consumption volume of 1.58 MMT CWE.

 

Nonetheless, the Philippine swine-pork industry remains in a precarious situation with ASF. As of October 2, 534 barangays in 122 municipalities of 30 provinces were still experiencing active cases, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported. Areas with the most red zones were North Cotabato (131), Quezon (98), Batangas (72), Camarines Sur (43), and La Union (35) provinces — all these make up 70% of affected barangays nationwide.

 

Contemporaneously, the Philippines is also experimenting with a new ASF vaccine. The AVAC live vaccines from Vietnam were found to stimulate substantial antibody development against the disease, with vaccinated hogs gaining 90% blocking in an Elisa test, according to DA Assistant Secretary for Swine and Poultry Constante Palabrica.

 

The efficacy of the AVAC vaccine has been questioned by some experts, although its reported outcome is only likely to encourage uptake, at least, in the Philippines. 

 

Indeed, pig farmers and producers can't wait to get their hands on the vaccine. Swine industry groups already urged agriculture secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. to push for an emergency use authorisation (EUA) of the vaccine. An EUA would be critical to expedite vaccination and be of great relief for badly hit backyard farmers.

 

Additionally, Camarines Sur Representative Luis Raymund Villafuerte Jr. supported a proposal to avail free ASF vaccine shots to backyard hog farmers.

 

The Philippine government sought to acquire 500,000 doses of the ASF vaccine from Vietnam in October, with 100,000 more doses expected before the year ends.

 

The speed of rollout is not the only issue hampering the Philippines' ASF vaccination efforts. Documentation requirements have been blamed for keeping pig farmers from participating in ASF vaccination sooner.

 

And while it seems backyard farmers are eager to be part of the vaccination campaign, widespread disinformation is also holding some from doing so. An administrative order stated that the "low participation rate" of small backyard farmers made it "necessary" for authorities to focus on expediting vaccination for commercial farms and "swine herds covered by the Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (Inspire) Program".

 

Given that about 70% of the Philippines's swine population originates from backyard farms (based on the "Swine Situation Report, April-June 2022" by the Philippine Statistics Authority), the slowdown in vaccination might likely result in a less inhibited spread of ASF nationwide, seriously threatening the country's pork production.

 

Some forecasts have shown a positive trend for Philippine pork production and consumption. The unpredictability of a deadly pig disease may otherwise upset such expectations tremendously.   

 

- EFL AG-DATA