July 30, 2026
 

Abiove raises Brazil's 2026 soybean export forecast to record 115.4 million tonnes as stocks tighten sharply

The Brazilian oilseed crusher association has also revised crush volumes higher to 63.3 million tonnes, while ending stocks were cut to 6.58 million tonnes - the tightest supply-demand balance since 2019 despite remaining at an elevated absolute level.

Brazil's oilseed processing association Abiove has raised its 2026 soybean export forecast by approximately 1.1% from its June estimate to a record 115.4 million tonnes, while lifting its crush volume projection from 63 million to 63.3 million tonnes, according to its latest monthly update.

Total export revenue from soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil was revised upward from US$59.9 billion to US$60.6 billion, reflecting both expanded export volumes and continued price support. The upward revision signals strong international demand and competitive Brazilian pricing relative to other origins.

Ending stocks for 2026 were cut sharply from 7.87 million tonnes to 6.58 million tonnes. While the absolute level remains the highest since 2019, the reduction signals a meaningful tightening in the supply-demand balance and points to a tighter market structure heading into the 2026/27 season.

Soybean meal export volumes were trimmed slightly by 50,000 tonnes to 24.9 million tonnes, while soybean oil exports were revised upward from 1.65 million to 1.7 million tonnes. The marginal shift in product mix reflects changes in crush margin economics, with processors directing a marginally larger share of output toward oil relative to meal.