May 23, 2024

 

What to expect for price performance of broiler eggs in the Chinese market in 2024

In 2023, China's inventory of white feather broilers hit a record, but the producers of parent stock (PS) broiler breeders suffered severe losses as the prices of broiler eggs stayed weak, particularly in the second half.

 

 

Last year, the price of broiler eggs rose from ¥1.55/egg at the start of 2023 to ¥3.75/egg by mid-March, before dropping to ¥1.05/egg by May. In July, prices firmed up to ¥2.50/egg before falling to ¥1.00/egg.

 

The cost of broiler eggs in 2023 was generally around ¥2.00/egg. With the price of broiler eggs stuck at around ¥1.00/egg in the second half of the year, PS breeder producers were suffering serious deficits.

 

In Q1 2023, prices of broiler eggs were at a high level, as the supply of white feather broiler chicks was insufficient. In early 2023, as the demand for chicken grew, tight supplies pushed up broiler prices (prices of day-old chicks and broiler eggs also increased).

 

Looking forward, the price trend of broiler eggs in 2024 will be determined by the number of PS breeder broilers and the demand for chicks.

 

In 2022, the total quantity of GPS broiler breeders expanded from low levels, hence stimulating the inventory of PS breeders to grow steadily. This will translate to an increased number of aging layers being dumped through 2024. With the replacement volume of PS breeder hens dwindling and the culling volumes of aging PS breeder broilers growing, the overall productivity of PS broiler breeders is projected to shrink entering the second half of 2024 — thus lowering the supplies of commercial broiler eggs.

 

Demand-wise, China's chicken consumption this year is set to fall from 2023's high levels. With the output of day-old chicks abundant, the prices of broiler eggs are unlikely to strengthen in Q1 2024. Only in the second half of 2024, as supplies start to drop, broiler egg producers can hope for rebounding prices.

 

Meanwhile, the overall demand for white-feather broilers in 2024 may fall from the historical high of 2023.

 

It is expected that in the first half of 2024, if the supply of chicks is sufficient or excessive, the price of hatching eggs will fluctuate in the break-even zone. But, as supply continues to decrease in the second, the price of hatching eggs may have an opportunity to rise.

 

- Shi Tao, eFeedLink