April 24, 2026
US corn production likely to fall short of 2025's peak
Fresh off last year's record crop, US corn farmers are back in their fields planting the 2026 edition, but with a very different setup this time around.
Early acreage estimates point to well-above-normal plantings, yet US corn production will almost certainly fall short of last year's peak, which featured unexpectedly high acres.
The world's leading exporter doesn't necessarily need another record crop to keep the balance sheet comfortable. As global competition intensifies - particularly from Brazil and amid shifting trade alliances with China - even small shifts in the US outlook could carry greater weight than usual.
March's area survey from the US Department of Agriculture set a high bar for 2026 corn plantings at 95.3 million acres (38.6 million hectares), about a million above trade expectations and also above the five-year average of 93 million.
Sinking corn prices have already cut into farmers' profits. Now a surge in energy and fertiliser prices triggered by the US-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is delivering a massive blow. Tensions had escalated at the start of USDA's survey window, potentially muddying the acreage outlook.
As of last week, US farmers needed 154 bushels of corn to cover the per-tonne cost of urea, a heavily imported nitrogen fertiliser. That's one of the steepest cost relationships in years, especially at this point in the season.
Fuel prices have skyrocketed. Retail diesel in the US Midwest last week hit US$5.38 per gallon, the highest since July 2022 and nearly 50% above the level last October, when many farmers began planning for 2026.
But farmers don't usually stray from initial corn plans unless weather severely disrupts planting. Corn acres in the US Department of Agriclture's June survey have exceeded March intentions in 14 of the last 20 years.
Although portions of the central US have been much wetter than normal this month, corn planting has not yet faced widespread setbacks. But it's still early.
As of April 19, corn was 11% planted, matching last year and topping the five-year average of 9%, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report.
Weather forecasts expect the central Corn Belt to remain somewhat wet through month's end, though that may not hamper progress if breaks in rainfall are sufficient. On average, U.S. corn is about 30% planted by May 1, marking the start of the season's busiest planting period.
El Nino, the warm phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, could arrive in full force by mid-summer, as US corn enters the pollination and grain-fill period. However, this weather pattern is not typically associated with poor US corn crops.
- Reuters