April 13, 2026

 

FAO: Global food commodity prices increased in March

 

 

World food commodity prices rose in March for the second month in a row, due largely to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East, according to the latest benchmark measure released on April 3 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

 

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4% from February and 1.0% above its level a year ago.

 

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.5% from the previous month, driven primarily by higher world wheat prices, which rose 4.3% due to drought-related deterioration of crop prospects in the United States and expectations of reduced plantings in Australia due to higher fertiliser costs. Global corn quotations edged up slightly, as ample global availability offset concerns over fertiliser affordability and indirect support from greater ethanol demand prospects linked to the rising energy prices. The FAO All-Rice Price Index declined by 3.0% in March, driven by harvest timing, weaker import demand, and currency depreciations against the US dollar.

 

"Price rises since the conflict began have been modest, driven mainly by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies," said FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero. "But if the conflict stretches beyond 40 days with high input costs with current low margins, farmers will have to choose: farm the same with fewer inputs, plant less, or switch to less intensive fertiliser crops. Those choices will hit future yields and shape our food supply and commodity prices for the rest of this year and all of the next."

 

The FAO Meat Price Index increased by 1.0% from the previous month, driven by a surge in pork prices in the European Union ahead of strengthening seasonal demand, along with higher world bovine meat prices, particularly in Brazil, where exportable supplies were curtailed by tightening cattle availability. Ovine and poultry meat prices declined, partly due to logistical constraints limiting access to markets in the Near East.

 

The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 1.2%, driven primarily by higher quotations for milk powders amid a seasonal decline in supplies in Oceania. International cheese prices declined further in the EU driven by higher production and weak export demand, while rising in Oceania for the opposite reasons.

 

Record wheat plantings in South Asia partly offsets declines elsewhere

 

FAO also released updated assessments of global wheat and corn production in 2026, both of which appear on course to drop modestly from high levels, though remaining above their past five-year averages.

 

With most of the world's wheat crop already planted, FAO forecasts worldwide harvests of 820 million tonnes, a 1.7% drop from the previous year. Lower prices and adverse weather conditions are anticipated to curb wheat output in the EU, the Russian Federation, and the US, while production in India is expected to hit a record high. Improved rainfall is expected to improve yields and overall outputs in Iran, Türkiye, and across North Africa.

 

However, the escalation of conflict in the Near East, with associated higher energy and fertiliser prices and disruptions to production and supply chain routes, as well as the prospect of some farmers shifting towards less fertiliser-intensive crops, has introduced additional uncertainty into the outlook for wheat and corn, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.

 

Corn harvesting is already underway south of the equator, and output is expected to be above average in Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa.

 

FAO has also updated several forecasts, now projecting global cereal production in 2025 at 3 036 million tonnes, 5.8% higher than the previous year. World rice output is projected to expand by 2.0%, driven by Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia, to reach a record 563.3 million tonnes.

 

World cereal utilisation in 2025/26 is forecast to rise by 2.4% on the year to 2 945 million tonnes, while global cereal stocks will likely expand by 9.2% to 951.5 million tonnes. The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the end of seasons in 2025/26 is forecast to stand at 32.2%, underlining an overall comfortable global supply situation. FAO's forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 stands at 505.3 million tonnes.

 

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor. Noting that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves across the global economy, with notable spillovers to the agricultural sector, the new edition of the report offers further details on the potential direct and indirect impacts of rising energy, fertiliser, and transportation costs on food and agriculture.

 

- FAO